A new Covid wave could be looming in England, experts say, as Covid hospital admissions stop falling.
Admissions of people to hospital with Covid in England have stopped declining, according to an analysis of new NHS figures by John Roberts a leading actuary from the Covid actuaries group.
When asked if the UK was heading into another wave Mr Roberts, told The Independent said “yes we could be but…how big that wave and how serious it will be in terms of admissions and deaths is very, very difficult to judge at this stage.”
His comments come after experts in Europe warned there will be a new wave driven by growth of the BA.5 and BA. Covid variants.
The average admissions over seven days have begun to grow in parts of England, according to new figures published by the NHS
The figures, which cover hospitals in England only, show the weekly average of admissions for patients in hospital with Covid stood at 448 as of 4 June.
According to an analysis by John Roberts, part of the Covid Actuaries group, weekly admissions in the north east and Yorkshire have increased by 9 per cent, and the south east by 3 per cent.
The actuary said that England was likely moving back to a “growth scenario.”
Speaking with The Independent he said it was “significant” that the fall in admissions had stopped and was consistent with data on infections. However said: “its significance really will depend on on how big the wave is.”
Mr Roberts also warned “the spring booster campaign, is only for people over 75, unless they have very specific health conditions. With people now been maybe six months since they had their first booster, there is a large population under 75, who don’t have the benefit of a second booster. If we are going to go into another wave, maybe that’s something that ought to be reconsidered.”
However, the figures published Monday do not differentiate between patients who have been admitted for Covid, as opposed to those who have tested positive for Covid following admission. This data will be published on Thursday.
Hospitals are no longer required test non-symptomatic patients upon admission, following a relaxation in hospital infection control requirements.
In a letter on 1 June NHS England told all hospitals they should be returning to pre-pandemic visiting arrangements after most providers restricted visiting in response to the pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control predicted on 12 May there could be a new wave in the weeks following driven by the increase in the BA.5 and BA. Covid variants.
In its paper, the European public health authority said there was no indication the variants were more severe but that they could cause a “significant increase” in Covid-19 cases in Europe “in the coming weeks and months.”
It added: “Based on the limited data currently available, no significant increase in infection severity compared to the circulating lineages BA.1 and BA.2 is expected. However, as in previous waves, if Covid case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.”
Later this week the Office for National Statistics will publish its weekly data on Covid deaths, which was delayed due to the bank holiday.
