By the time that Graham Potter got to sit down with the Chelsea hierarchy, the talks were strikingly straightforward. Both sides had a clear vision of what they wanted. Chelsea have been considering Potter for weeks. They think he is precisely the personality profile they want, as well as a hugely promising manager. He has meanwhile outlined in detail what he can do with this squad.
The situation has been proceeding with such a speed, in fact, that it’s fair to wonder whether anyone involved has actually stopped to consider whether this is actually the right time.
Could Potter not just wait to try and give Brighton the brilliant season this promises to be? Could Chelsea not wait until he’s offered the proof of an achievement like that? Do the big six really have to go and snatch up anything interesting that comes from the depths below them? Should Potter not wait for a surer thing, and not a situation so unknown?
The reality is that there is almost never a perfect time or situation in football. One of Potter’s rivals for the job, in Mauricio Pochettino, could tell him that. So could Brendan Rodgers. Six months ago, the Leicester City manager would have been the obvious candidate. There is now talk of whether Brighton might suit him, as Chelsea are not even looking.
All of this discussion, as with everything now, is shaped by the economic framework of the modern game. It in this case sharpens a truth almost anyone can relate to. You often have to take these chances as they come. There are few guarantees. Such is the precariousness of the Premier League beyond the big six that the wrong player sale, or the wrong run, can completely change your position and your perception. As exceptional as Brighton have been in recruitment, as an example, Leicester are proof that you can’t indefinitely sell your better players without eventually suffering a dip.
It can go wrong quite quickly, no matter how well you are run. It is only a few months ago that Brighton were getting booed for not shooting. He wouldn’t have been considered for this job then.
That isn’t necessarily a reflection of anyone’s coaching ability. It’s just what happens in a relatively chaotic middle tier with more mediocre players.
So, far from risking being out of favour in eight months – or even just going through another season of solid stability – it is instead feasible that Potter could win the Champions League in that time. He will at least get to test himself at that level, something he would only have seen as a far-off ambition when at Ostersunds for seven years. In that context, as well as what it does for his family, it is not really a question at all. The choice is obvious.
It’s not about money. It’s about trying to reach the top and make the best of your ability. Holding up the Champions League trophy is what they are in it for.
It is why the question of what is right for Potter’s own career is different to what is right for the game.
It is possible to entirely understand the 47-year-old’s decision and simultaneously lament what it means for anyone outside the big six. The gap is so great now that Potter pretty much has to consider the approach, since the same forces mean he can’t really dream of anything so great at the Amex.
What would constitute success with Brighton this season, after all? A cup run? European qualification? Both of those tend to get shut down by the big six, for precisely the same reason Chelsea are going for Potter. These clubs accumulate most of the resources so accumulate all the talent, the better the quicker.
The tragedy is how fixed it makes the entire game. Any time there is anything interesting elsewhere, or a sign of something different, the same big names come along. And if it doesn’t work out? Well then Chelsea can just chew him up and go for the next option.
That points to why there are some risks for both parties, again related to that gap.
Potter has never faced the scrutiny of a club like this. There is an immense difference between a bad run in mid-table and three games without a win at Chelsea, all the more so when you don’t have the guarantee of prior success.
It is why some in the game talk of a recruitment issue among managers as well. The super clubs often go for the same circuit of names because they all require evidence a manager can do it at their level. Reaching a Champions League semi-final with Ajax, as even Erik ten Hag has found out, is not the same as restoring Manchester United.
This is why, since the “big six” became established around 2012, there have only been four occasions when they have effectively promoted a manager from a permanent job in the English league. These were: Rodgers from Swansea City to Liverpool; David Moyes from Everton to Manchester United; Pochettino from Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur; Frank Lampard from Derby County to Chelsea.
Even Lampard only really got the job because Chelsea were going through a transfer ban and he offered the emotional connection that altered the dynamic. It was similar with a restructuring Arsenal giving Mikel Arteta his first job.
Chelsea, for their part, now want to go a different way. The new owners want this first managerial appointment to be something of a mission statement for the way forward, to show what they are about.
