Max Verstappen vs Lando Norris: predicting who will win the last six F1 races – and the 2024 title
Lando Norris closed the gap to Max Verstappen in the F1 title stakes to 52 points with his dominant victory at the Singapore Grand Prix – but is the deficit closing quickly enough for the McLaren driver?
The chase has been on to catch Red Bull’s Verstappen, himself eyeing a fourth consecutive F1 world championship, for some time as Norris targets what would be a sensational comeback triumph.
Who knows how important Daniel Ricciardo’s late fastest lap of the race could be too, with Norris the previous beneficiary of that extra point. Statistically, it now means that Verstappen could claim the title by finishing in second place in every race to Norris, regardless of who claims the fastest-lap bonus point.
Of course, that eventuality is extremely unlikely in a period when F1 is at peak competitiveness. But will McLaren also regret switching Oscar Piastri and Norris at the end of the Hungarian Grand Prix in July? If they hadn’t, the deficit to Verstappen would be 45 points. Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to seven points at the end of the season.
There are still 180 points up for grabs in the remaining six rounds – including three sprint races – when F1 returns after a four-week break with the US Grand Prix in October.
So, can Norris catch Verstappen? Will the season finale in Abu Dhabi on 8 December have a title on the line for the first time since 2021? The Independent takes a look at the state of play and makes some ambitious predictions about how things could play out.
Points available: 34
Straight off a four-week break comes a crucial race weekend at the Circuit of the Americas.
Austin, Texas, hosts the fourth sprint race of the season and with an extra eight points up for grabs, it feels like a weekend where Norris and McLaren need to make their speed count. But after some extended time off, will Red Bull bring a host of upgrades and an improved level of performance?
Cota will be resurfaced this year, too, which should help the RB20, and the circuit’s smooth nature (as opposed to Baku and Singapore) should aid the characteristics of their car. Verstappen has also won the last three races in Austin and, as a result, if Norris can beat the Dutchman here, it really is game on.
Prediction: Norris 1st; Verstappen 2nd (Sprint: Verstappen 1st; Norris 2nd)
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 357 points; Norris: 311 points (-46 points)
Points left in the season: 146
Points available: 26
Mexico City has seen Verstappen dominate more so than Austin, winning five of the last six races. Out of all the six remaining circuits, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez could be the one to swing Red Bull’s way.
But we are in unchartered territory, given McLaren’s advantage heading into the autumn break. How will both cars fare at an altitude of over 2,200m? And will we have any variant results between the top two?
I can see Verstappen’s winless streak – which would be at nine races by this point – ending here. Norris must limit the damage.
Prediction: Verstappen 1st; Norris 2nd (fastest lap)
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 382 points; Norris: 330 points (-52 points)
