Oscars 2024: Who will win, should win, and who should have got a look in

A sure sign that the 2024 Oscar nominees are pretty good is that the civil wars brewing between their fans are sillier than usual. Twitter has been anticipating a battle between supporters of Best Actress rivals Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone – but they’re both mutually brilliant, so who cares? People raged over Greta Gerwig’s snubbing from the Best Director category – but the five actual nominees are sort of extraordinary, so what’s the issue? Yes, it’s a bit uninteresting if Robert Downey Jr prevails in Best Supporting Actor – but what kind of monster would take issue with Robert Downey Jr finally getting an Academy Award?

For the most part – or, more specifically, if you pretend Nyad doesn’t exist – this year’s nominations are an embarrassment of riches. Even the more middle-range films making appearances here, such as Barbie or Maestro, at least feature dazzling technical prowess or a handful of strong performances.

It means this Sunday’s Oscars should be a whole lot of fun, rewarding deserving people and what was, overall, a surprisingly great year in film.

Ahead of the ceremony, we’ve cast an eye over the major categories and decided who will win, who should win, and who really should have got a look in.

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall


The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon



Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Likely winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph in ‘The Holdovers’

Will win Oppenheimer

Should win Oppenheimer

Shoulda got a look in May December

In any other year, at least six of these movies would have been deserving – and probable – Best Picture winners. I’m not sure it’s quite as open a field as it may seem, though. Since it made an absolute tonne of money, and in a way that remains slightly flabbergasting, Oppenheimer feels like a tailor-made victor here. As for a missing movie that should have been invited to the party, I do think the absence of May December – Todd Haynes’s biting age-gap melodrama – is a bit perplexing.

Cold shoulder: Sandra Hüller and Swann Arlaud in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’

Chilling: Jonathan Glazer’s ‘The Zone of Interest’

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