Computer simulations suggest that it could be possible to artificially influence the weather by inserting “butterfly effect” perturbations.
Researchers from the Riken Center for Computational Science in Japan say the mathematical investigation “opens the path to research into the controllability of weather and could lead to weather control technology”.
The butterfly effect, first theorised by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1960s, is a phenomenon whereby an infinitesimal perturbation, like “a butterfly flapping its wings”, can have huge consequences, like “a tornado in Texas”.
It forms part of chaos theory, which posits that seemingly random activity and events can be deterministically attributed to specific causes.
A study detailing the research revealed what perturbations were needed to modify and control the weather.
“The control of weather is humans’ long-time desire, and if we know when and where to put a ‘butterfly’, we could lead a better life by, for example, reducing the risks of tornadoes,” the study stated.
“We do not aim to cause a permanent irreversible change to nature, but we would like to control the weather within its natural variability and to aid human activities.”
Previous attempts to control the weather have included rain enhancement in desert regions by a process known as cloud seeding, which involve injecting moist air with substances to induce rainfall. However, such techniques only work if there is already significant moisture in the air already and do not amount to influencing entire weather systems.
The Riken team instead used small variations in their weather simulations for a number of variables involving convection – the way in which heat moves through the system. They discovered that small changes would lead to major changes as time elapsed.
“We have built a new theory and methodology for studying the controllability of weather,” said Dr Takemasa Miyoshi, from the RIKEN Center for Computational Science, who led the research..
“Based on the observing system simulation experiments used in previous predictability studies, we were able to design an experiment to investigate predictability based on the assumption that the true values (nature) cannot be changed, but rather that we can change the idea of what can be changed (the object to be controlled).
“If realised, this research could help us prevent and mitigate extreme windstorms, such as torrential rains and typhoons, whose risks are increasing with climate change.”
The research was published in the journal Nonlinear Processes of Geophysics.
