A secret rebellion by disgruntled government ministers could finish off Boris Johnson as Conservative leader, Tory MPs plotting his ejection believe.
The prime minister could face a no-confidence vote as early as this week, with the support of 180 Tory MPs needed for him to hold onto his job.
Backers have suggested that he is all but certain to win any ballot, as the “payroll vote” of 173 ministers and parliamentary aides is almost enough to get him past the threshold of support from half the Tories’ 359 MPs.
But one backbencher who has called for Mr Johnson’s resignation told The Independent that the PM cannot take the votes of members of his own government for granted. Two parliamentary private secretaries have already quit over Partygate, and rebels believe that other government figures are ready privately to join the drive to unseat him.
“It is a secret ballot, and in the privacy of the polling booth it is far from certain that all of his ministers will vote to keep him in office,” said the MP.
“Some of them have very small majorities and will be worried for their seats. Some of them may think they would prosper better under another leader. And some of them just don’t like what he is doing to the party.
“It’s obvious that the majority of backbenchers will vote to remove him, but the secret to getting over the line will be how many ministers and PPSs – who of course have said nothing in public because it would cost them their jobs – will join them.”
The MP said the result of a confidence vote will be “very close” and predicted that even if Mr Johnson scrapes home by a narrow margin he will be terminally wounded.
“At that point, I think it is ‘men in grey suits’ time, and members of the cabinet will be telling him it is time to go,” said the backbencher. “Any normal person would resign.”
Some Tory rebels believe that the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady has already received the 54 letters required to trigger a no-confidence ballot, with one source suggesting the tally could be as high as 67.
Sir Graham always maintains a scrupulous silence over the true figure, and some at Westminster believe he may have be waiting for the end of the Platinum Jubilee weekend to tot up the total, after he said that counting letters was “not a regular pastime” for him.
If the threshold is passed on Monday, he would be expected to inform the prime minister before calling a vote as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.
If not, many MPs expect it to be passed after the by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on 23 June, when polls suggest Conservatives are facing a torrid night.
A survey by JL Partners for the Sunday Times gave Labour a 20-point lead over Tories in the West Yorkshire seat, one of the highly symbolic Red Wall constituencies which fell to Mr Johnson in the 2019 election.
The pollster’s James Johnson said Tories could face also face defeat in Devon, with focus groups suggesting that even Leave voters are now ready to help Liberal Democrats overturn a 24,000 majority in a by-election triggered by MP Neil Parish’s resignation over watching porn in the Commons.
“Partygate has changed everything and that trust has now completely gone in Boris Johnson,” he said. “Also that feeling that he is strong and can get things done has gone. I think these by-elections and the polls and the local election results show that Boris Johnson is no longer the asset he once was.”
With voters showing little enthusiasm for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, the Conservatives could recover their lead in the national polls “quite quickly” with a new face at the helm, said James Johnson.
One former major donor to the Conservatives predicted the party was heading for “obliteration” in the general election and a decade in the wilderness unless Johnson is ditched.
Financier Michael Tory, who has given more than £300,000 to the party since 2010, said: “I was a loyal and long-standing donor but can only resume donating if there is an immediate change of leadership.
