As in 2020, the future of the United States, at least in part, depends on the electoral mood in just a few states with exceptionally close contests. While the House of Representatives may slip into Republican hands, and by a smaller margin than expected, the Senate may yet be retained in Democrat control. This is a further surprise.
Too close to call senatorial elections in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona – and, most poignantly, Georgia – may well determine the marginally dominant party in the Senate, and with it the ability of President Biden to do much in his remaining term in office.
The fact that he and his party have outperformed polls and pundits – and the comparable first-term performances for Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010 – will in any case be a boost to morale for Mr Biden and the Democrats, and quite possibly of much greater import.
