The Tory government has thrown away its traditional reputation for economic competence after a financial meltdown which sent interest rates soaring. The prime minister is not in control of events or their party. The Labour opposition is more than 20 points ahead in the opinion polls and on course for power after a long period in the wilderness.
True today, and also true in 1995-97. The last time the financial markets lost confidence in a Tory government was on “Black Wednesday” in 1992, when the UK was ejected from the European exchange rate mechanism. Labour won a landslide five years later with the same 10 per cent swing Keir Starmer needs to secure an overall majority.
The strong parallels between then and now were noted by figures in both main parties during their annual conferences. Again, Labour is increasingly confident of election victory and many Tories are resigned to defeat. “We are toast,” a former cabinet minister told me. “Sometimes, a government just runs out of steam.”
