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Ukraine: Russia targets control of the Black Sea to further threaten the west

After more than a century as a mostly somnolent backwater, the Black Sea has suddenly emerged as a major frontline and potential flashpoint between Russia and the west following the invasion of Ukraine.

Russian president Vladimir Putinlaunched a major assault on Ukraine on Thursday that targeted installations in cities across the country as well as ports along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Russian forces have also reportedly sought to wrest control of Ukraine’s Serpent Island, which lies less than 30 miles off the coast of Nato and European Union member Romania.

Russia seized control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and has amassed warships and amphibious assault vehicles off the Ukrainian coast.

Seizing control of Ukraine’s entire 1,400km Black Sea coastline would allow Russia to lord over the other littoral states, and give it the ability to project power toward the Balkans and the Near East, where Russian forces are positioned in the Syrian city of Tartus.

“The Black Sea is Russia’s entrance to the world – including the Mediterranean and Atlantic spheres of influence,” Rustem Umerov, a Ukrainian member of parliament from Crimea, told The Independent in a phone interview. “That’s why [Putin] is focused on the Black Sea.”

Yoruk Isik, an Istanbul-based risk management consultant who focuses on Black Sea ship movements, called the Russian assault a “wake-up call” about Russian intentions for the region.

“They already control Crimea,” he said. “If they take new positions they will really have technical means with missiles to have area denial over the whole of the Black Sea.”

Accessible to the rest of the world’s seas only via the Strait of Bosphorus to the south, the Black Sea was a crucial crossroads during the Bronze Age and under Greek and Byzantine empires, connecting the Balkans and Anatolia to the Caucasus and central Asia. It is filled with ancient shipwrecks which have delighted archaeologists in recent decades.

In the Middle Ages, it came under the dominion of the Ottoman empire, until the Russian empire began to exert control in the 18th century. It became a major battleground during the First World War, when Russia fought against the Ottomans for control of the sea, and during the Second World War, when Soviet forces battled German-led axis powers.

In addition to Russia, Black Sea littoral states now include three Nato members – Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania – as well as Georgia and Ukraine, two nations that have clamoured to escape Russian domination and join the western bloc. Moldova, on Ukraine’s southwestern border, Azerbaijan and Armenia are also countries close to the Black Sea that most analysts consider part of the region.

For Russia, the Black Sea provides the access to warm water ports it has coveted for centuries.

“The Black Sea is important because of the significant access that it offers to Russia – in particular, access to global sea lines of communication and opportunities to project power at strategic distance and expand its air and coastal defences,” said a 2020 report last year published by the Rand Corporation.

For years, Russia has sought to use soft-power tools such as the Orthodox church, media outlets or energy spigots to manipulate the nations of the Black Sea. But it has also been willing to use covert paramilitary as well as raw military power.

Incensed by Tbilisi’s turn toward the western alliance, Russian forces attacked Georgia in 2008, launching airstrikes on major cities, including along its Black Sea coast.

A Russian cruiser conducting an artillery battle in the Black Sea near Sevastopol, Crimea, last week

Since Mr Putin’s military takeover and annexation of Crimea, Russia has aggressively militarised the Black Sea. It has resurrected unused military bases and positioned sophisticated weaponry on the peninsula, including cutting-edge air defence systems and older surface-to-air missile systems. It has added six Kilo-class submarines, several frigates and smaller vessels to its Black Sea fleet since 2014.

“The naval acquisitions demonstrate that Russia is seeking to rebuild a long-range strike capability in the Black Sea,” said the Rand report.

In the weeks preceding Thursday’s all-out Russian invasion, experts noted an emphasis on anti-submarine warfare exercises likely aimed at countering any Nato attempts to thwart an attack on Ukraine.

Nato forces have also upped their patrols and joint exercises in the Black Sea and bolstered coordination along what US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin called “Nato’s eastern flank”. A rapid deployment force has been positioned in Romania.

Russian navy submarine Rostov-on-Don sails in the Bosphorus earlier this month

Xural.com

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