Devastating floods on a similar scale to those seen in Germany in 2021 are “absolutely conceivable” in the UK, experts have warned.
Factors ranging from the summer’s drought conditions to erratic weather patterns caused by the climate crisis rachet up the risk, they claim.
It comes after Storm Claudio battered parts of the UK this week, prompting a number of flood warnings and alerts to be issued.
Parts of London woke up to flooded roads and transport problems after the capital experienced half a month’s rainfall in one night, with the Met Office warning of further heavy rain across parts of the country for the next two weeks.
The latest estimates used by insurance companies in Britain indicate around 5.2 million homes and businesses are at risk of flooding, and that number is rising as global warming raises the likelihood of extreme weather.
By the middle of this century, the cost of one-in-200-years flooding could rise by 42 per cent to £5bn, even under an intermediate emissions scenario, according to JBA Risk, which provides flood modelling services to insurance companies.
It is impossible to accurately predict flood disasters or be certain of how and where they might impact the country, but events such as the London floods – which swamped Tube stations, homes and businesses in July 2021, causing drainage systems to fail and inundating properties with raw sewage – were part of the same weather system that impacted Germany and Belgium days later.
No one was killed in the UK, but as record levels of rain continued to fall across Europe, catastrophic flooding led to landslides, tore through towns, destroyed buildings and vehicles, cut off roads and railways, and left 196 people dead in Germany. In Belgium, 43 people were killed.
Germany’s chancellor at the time, Angela Merkel, described the extent and intensity of the flooding as “terrifying”, and told reporters: “I can almost say that the German language doesn’t have words for the destruction that’s been wreaked.”
Andy Bord, chief executive of the UK’s Flood Re initiative, a joint scheme between insurance companies and the government which helps make flood insurance affordable, told The Independent: “We were incredibly lucky to escape something similar in this country and it is absolutely conceivable that the same thing could happen here.
“The recent heatwave in the UK and incidents of flooding that followed straight after are a reminder of the more extreme weather we can expect as the overall climate gets wetter and warmer.
“Had the weather patterns been slightly different in the UK, we easily could have seen floods of the same scale as those in Germany.”
The warning comes as world leaders gather this weekend in Egypt for the Cop27 climate conference.
The UK was hit by a record-breaking heatwave this summer and a continuing drought which could last into next year, according to the Environment Agency.
The greatest risk to properties is not from sea or river flooding, but from flooding caused by heavy rain – known as pluvial flooding.
A car negotiates a flooded section of the A1 road on November 2 in London
Mr Bord said: “Rainwater flooding is regarded as a greater threat than both river – fluvial flooding – and coastal flooding combined. For instance, the Environment Agency estimates 3 million properties in England are susceptible to pluvial flooding – compared to 2.7 million properties that are at risk of fluvial or coastal flooding.”
Rock-hard ground following months of dry weather is almost impenetrable to water, resulting in rapid surface water runoff, posing a risk to properties.
Meanwhile, warming temperatures, also due to the climate crisis, means the atmosphere can hold more water – resulting in more intense and prolonged rainstorms.
A similar scenario has been the cause of deadly flooding in Pakistan in September, where a severe heatwave was followed by torrential monsoons and compounded by rapidly melting glacial waters. Almost 1,600 people are known to have been killed in the floods which have left around one third of the country under water.
Water gushes into London tube station in flash floods in July 2021
A bridge and houses are destroyed at the Ahr river in Schuld, Germany, on July 16, 2021
