The World Cup is here with 32 teams arriving in Qatar eyeing up glory.
This feels like a wide-open tournament with the climate still a factor despite shifting the dates to the cooler winter temperatures in the region, with games set to be played in over 20 degrees.
The frantic build-up and alien schedule for international players looking to peak at the mid-way point of the season is also likely to become a wildcard.
Those sides with extra depth, not to mention an ability to harness up to five substitutions in regular time with a sixth change in extra-time, could thrive into the second week and beyond in Qatar.
Here we take a look at the odds and best bets to make on the winner, golden ball and golden boot:
Brazil certainly have the best XI on paper, with very few weaknesses, even if their full-backs are possibly as weak as they have been in 30 years. The Selecao have conceded three times in 10 matches though, proving Tite has adequately shielded those areas with extra threat in the wide areas through Vinicius Jr and Raphinha concerning opponents, plus Fred and Casemiro’s instinct to cut out the danger in transition.
We like Argentina as a value play here (7/1) though, with Lionel Messi the obvious star man and match winner. The Albiceleste are unbeaten in 35 matches entering the tournament and with Lisandro Martinez thriving at Manchester United, they have a defence capable of shutting out opponents, not to mention the surprise boost of Paulo Dybala winning his fitness race to complement Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, who has seen much-needed gametime just in time for Qatar after Erling Haaland’s injury.
Serbia could emerge as a dark horse and may represent eachway value at 60/1, with Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic able to cause a nuisance for any defence. Dragan Stojković’s side may take inspiration from Croatia’s surprise run to the final last time out, with an enticing draw: Cameroon and Switzerland are the competition for a likely runner-up spot behind Brazil, then the winners of Group H would await (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea or Ghana).
Winners
Via Betfair
Argentina’s route to the final and a gentle start with Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland mean Lautaro Martinez represents good value at 25/1.
It’s been 20 years since the winner has scored more than six goals when Ronaldo hit eight in 2002, with the time before that in 1974 when Grzegorz Lato struck seven. This means anybody poised to have a shot at a hat-trick in the group stage should be seriously considered.
We’ll lead with Neymar, who can lean on penalties and may play centrally or with a free role off the left depending on Tite’s set-up for certain opponents.
Martinez feels a borderline outsider pick at 25/1, but the Inter Milan striker has just one goal in his last six Inter games leading into Qatar. Phil Foden is intriguing at 40/1 and while he represents risk without a guaranteed starting role for Southgate, the City star scores in bunches, with five in three or six in five earlier this season. There are also spells of three in five and three in four earlier in 2022 too, making him worth a small play that could return some eachway value.
Another young player not guaranteed a start but with the potential to find a hot streak, or rather in the middle of one, is Jamal Musiala (66/1) – more on him below. With five goals in his last seven Bayern starts, there could be great reward if he beats out Thomas Muller (50/1) for a start.
Jamal Musiala is one of the most exciting young players on show in Qatar
Advice: Look out for terms used by bookmakers between top scorer and golden boot winner. If it’s the former, you’ll be able to win or make a profit if the player is tied for most goals. But the golden boot will be handed out based on Fifa’s tie-breaking rules. The first of which goes to the player with fewer goals scored from penalties, the next one is the player with the most assists and the final one is the player with the least amount of time, which translates to the highest goal average.
Via Betfair
The award was won by Luka Modric last time out, ensuring that for a fifth successive edition of the tournament the winner came from a side that did not win the trophy.
A narrative award, it’s hard to imagine Messi (10/1) not winning this if he can guide Argentina to the final. Also, factor in this is not an award for defenders; German goalkeeper Oliver Kahn won it in 2002 but the only defender to win it was Uruguay’s Jose Nasazzi in 1930.
Neymar leads Brazil in Qatar
