Clamour for a general election is growing among voters, as Rishi Sunak’s allies warned “bitter” Tory MPs opposed to his leadership against any moves which could bring down the government.
Public pressure for an immediate election continues to build, with MPs’ inboxes flooded with pleas for a snap vote and the TUC and People’s Assembly set to stage major rallies next week.
More than 460,000 people have signed a petition set up by The Independent arguing it is time for voters to decide who should govern the country as part of our Election Now campaign.
Focus group bosses said there had been a huge surge in demand for a fresh election following the chaos which saw Liz Truss ousted and Mr Sunak become the third Tory PM since Boris Johnson led his party to victory on the basis of the 2019 manifesto.
In sessions shared with The Independent, voters in red-wall seats in the North and Midlands said Mr Sunak was “in the job without having to fight for it” and deciding on the government “should be down to us”.
Constitutional experts also said backbench Tory rebellions could collapse the Sunak administration and spark a snap vote – pointing out that an election becomes “inescapable” if the PM cannot lead a stable government.
Mr Sunak faces huge challenges keeping his party together ahead, with Tories loyal to Mr Johnson such as Nadine Dorries, Sir Christopher Chope and Zac Goldsmith calling for an early election.
Veteran MP Sir Roger Gale warned those who dislike Mr Sunak against rebellions on 17 November Budget measures – even if unpopular decisions like real-terms cuts to benefits, slashing public sector spending or breaking the “triple lock” promise on pensions have to be made.
“They may try to [rebel], but they’re going to be small majority,” he told The Independent. “There will be some sour grapes, there are people who have lost ministerial jobs. But we have to put egos behind us and get on with governing.”
The scale of the challenge for Mr Sunak in continuing to get big economic measures through parliament “will depend how stubborn colleagues want to be,” said Sir Roger, who backed Penny Mordaunt for the leadership.
One senior Tory MP, who supported Sunak, said: “It would be bonkers to try to replace the leader or move against the government when it comes to the finances. It would be just mad. It would require an immediate general election. I would urge them to think very carefully [about rebellions].”
Another Tory, a former minister said “bitter” Johnson loyalists would be “well-advised to be cautious” about rebelling on major issues because of the risk of losing their seat in an early election. “It would be turkeys voting for Christmas.”
Catherine Haddon, senior fellow at the Institute for Government (IfG), said the failure to get majority support in the Commons for “do or die” economic measures could make the Sunak government “unsustainable”.
The constitutional expert said the government was more likely to be brought down through “miscalculation” if Mr Sunak were to declare a major economic issue a confidence motion which he fails to win.
Asked why Tory MPs would vote against the government on a confidence motion, she said: “There comes a point where some MPs might say an election is for the good of the country. Or it could simply be out of spite. They might calculate they can still win their own seat. Or they might be happy stepping down and doing something else.”
The government experts said there was no constitutional reason why the Tories couldn’t replace Mr Sunak. “But it feels like there is a limit to the number of replacement leaders if the party is unable to form an effective government. Public pressure for a general election can become inescapable,” she said.
Dr Haddon added: “One lesson from the last few years is you can’t entirely predict how chaotic things could get. Things that seem completely mad might still happen.”
Prof Andrew Blick of King’s College London agrees that it would be very difficult for the Tories to replace Mr Sunak if it became clear he could not command the confidence of the House, with an election more likely.
“You can’t rule out an early election. It would take a major split in the Conservative Party, but if it becomes impossible to govern, a government can just give up,” said the constitutional expert.
