Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself as the heir to Sir Tony Blair after his party clinched two major by-election victories in Tory safe seats – a result that he jubilantly declared a “game-changer”.
The Labour leader insisted his party would stay “humble” – but boasted that he could see the “summit” of a general election victory, as he cited Sir Tony’s 1997 triumph.
“What I do want to do is follow in the footsteps of a leader of our party who took us from opposition into power,” he said, after two huge majorities were overturned in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
Britain’s top polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said Rishi Sunak’s party was set to be even more “heavily” defeated than in the wipeout of 1997, while former Tory chancellor George Osborne warned that the Tories faced electoral “armageddon”. Another former Conservative minister told The Independent that the results showed the party was “shot to pieces”.
The record-breaking losses sparked another round of bitter Tory infighting. While the right accused Mr Sunak of being in “denial” and pushed him to be “braver” on culture-war issues and tax, moderates pleaded with the PM against a further lurch away from the centre.
Mr Sunak conceded that the defeats were “obviously disappointing” – but said that mid-term by-elections were “always difficult” for governments as he sought to blame “local factors”.
The fresh poll calamity for Mr Sunak came as:
Labour’s Alistair Strathern recorded a 20.5 per cent swing to overcome a 24,000 majority in Mid Bedfordshire, while the party’s Sarah Edwards overcame a majority of 19,000 in Tamworth with a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing away from the Tories.
The Mid Bedfordshire by-election was triggered after Nadine Dorries sensationally quit in protest at being denied a peerage in her ally Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list, for which she blamed Mr Sunak. The Tamworth contest was sparked when Tory MP Chris Pincher resigned after he was found to have drunkenly groped two men.
Prof Curtice said Sir Keir could be on course for an even bigger majority than in 1997 in the light of the “extraordinary swings”. He said these were “not ordinary government by-election losses” – pointing out that no government had ever lost a seat as safe as Tamworth.
“The Conservative Party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily – and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997,” said Prof Curtice.
Sir Keir said the two by-election victories constituted a “game-changer”, showing that there was nowhere in the country where his party could not “put up a fight”.
But New Labour architect Mr Mandelson warned Sir Keir that there is a “poisonous and corrosive” belief within his party that the general election is already won. He told Times Radio that overconfidence could lead Labour “into traps and mistakes”.
Asked if he was worried about complacency, Sir Keir told Sky News there was “a mountain to climb”. “We are climbing the mountain – we can see the summit with these victories. But we’ve still got to get there,” he said.
Writing for The Independent, Tory grandee Dominic Grieve said the defeats showed that the party was now “shot to pieces”, and that Mr Sunak was suffering from the legacy of Ms Truss’s time in office and of the “charlatan” Mr Johnson.
Sunak is under pressure from the left and the right in his party
Mr Grieve warned Mr Sunak against listening to “people on the Tory right who are the architects of the disaster”. The former cabinet minister said he feared a further “lurch to the right” if the party is thumped at the general election.
One former Tory minister described the by-election results as the “most anti-Boris Johnson vote imaginable”. They added: “This is the ultimate Boris Johnson legacy. From [his ally] Nadine Dorries to defending Chris Pincher.” He added that Labour was “heading for a three-figure majority, the way things stand”.
Former Tory justice secretary David Gauke said: “You have to look at this and say, the Tories are going out and Labour are coming in.”
He urged the PM to do more to distance himself from Mr Johnson, who was found to have lied to parliament over Partygate. “The fact that he hasn’t [distanced himself] means that the Conservatives are essentially going to be lumbered with [being seen as] the party of Partygate and the party of the mini-Budget.”
Starmer pictured with newly elected Labour MP for Tamworth Sarah Edwards
