Emmanuel Macron is on course to lose his absolute majority in France’s National Assembly, after the first projections showed Sunday’s election delivering a hung parliament.
The projections, which are based on partial results, show that Mr Macron’s centrist Ensemble! alliance would win between 200 and 250 seats – much less than the 289 required to have a majority in France’s most powerful house of parliament.
If the projections are borne out, a coalition composed of the hard left, the Socialists and the Greens could make Mr Macron’s presidency less powerful, since the lower house of parliament has the final say in passing laws.
Mr Macron’s government will still have the ability to rule, but only by bargaining with legislators.
The centrists could try to negotiate on a case by case basis with politicians from the centre-left and from the conservative Les Republicans party – with the goal of preventing opposition politicians from being numerous enough to reject the proposed measures.
The government could also occasionally use a special measure provided by the French Constitution to adopt a law without a vote.
A hung parliament, unusual in France, would restrict Mr Macron’s ability to deliver on his key policies including tax cuts and raising France’s retirement age from 62 to 65.
The result could also be significant for Europe as analysts predict the French leader would have to spend the rest of his second term focusing more on his domestic agenda rather than his foreign policy. It could spell the end of President Macron the continental statesman.
As results began to be announced, Richard Ferrand, the head of the National Assembly and a close ally of the president, said he had been beaten. Cristophe Castaner, a former interior minister and another senior figure who shaped Mr Macron’s first five-year term, also admitted defeat.
In another unusual projection of Sunday’s vote, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party was forecast to win as many as 100 seats – its biggest score on record.
The conservative Les Republicains and allies could also get as many as 100, which would give them chance to prop up the president and increase their sway in French government.
Supporters of hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, who heads the coalition taking on the president, celebrated after the projections were published. In last week’s first-round vote, the coalition made a surprisingly strong showing.
The president made a powerfully choreographed plea to voters earlier this week ahead of a trip to Romania and Ukraine, warning that a hung parliament would put the nation in danger.
“In these troubled times, the choice you’ll make this Sunday is more crucial than ever,” he said on Tuesday, with the presidential plane waiting starkly in the background ahead of a visit to French troops stationed near Ukraine.
“Nothing would be worse than adding French disorder to the world’s disorder,” he said.
Some voters agreed, and argued against choosing candidates on the political extremes. Others argued that the French system, which grants broad power to the president, should give more power to the multi-party parliament.
However, these parliamentary elections have once again seen more people staying home than voting. Just 38 per cent of the French electorate had voted by 5pm, down from 42 per cent in 2017.
