Nato nations must be ready for an all-out war with Russia within the next 20 years, a senior official of the alliance’s military committee warned.
Rob Bauer, a Dutch admiral, warned that a large number of civilians will have to be mobilised if a wider war breaks out in Europe and the process of recruiting much larger reserve forces should be put in place by governments now.
Adm Bauer chairs the alliance’s committee of national armed forces chiefs, and was speaking after a meeting of the committee in Brussels.
“We have to realise it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we (Nato forces) are preparing for a conflict with Russia,” he said.
“But the discussion is much wider. It is also the industrial base and also the people that have to understand they play a role.”
He warned: “The realisation that not everything is plannable and not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years.”
A day earlier, the top official of Nato’s military committee said the alliance needed a “warfighting transformation” and asked the public and private actors in the West to gear up for an era in which anything could happen at any time, including fighting a war.
Following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Nato governments and companies should adjust their thinking to “an era in which anything can happen at any time, an era in which we need to expect the unexpected, an era in which we need to focus on effectiveness in order to be fully effective”, he said.
Nearly 90,000 troops from 31 Nato member states and Sweden – which is in the process of joining the alliance – will start massive military exercises dubbed “Steadfast Defender 2024” next week.
Wargames of this scale have not been seen since the Cold War. They will continue through until May, and are aimed at deterring Russia from targeting any Nato country.
“The Alliance will demonstrate its ability to reinforce the Euro-Atlantic area via trans-Atlantic movement of forces from North America. This reinforcement will occur during a simulated emerging conflict scenario against a near-peer adversary,” a joint statement by Nato officials said.
It added that the exercise will be a “clear demonstration of our unity, strength, and determination to protect each other, our values and the rules-based international order”.
The top Nato admiral also pledged the alliance’s backing for Ukraine and said that the nation facing a Russian invasion “will have our support for every day that is to come, because the outcome of this war will determine the fate of the world”.
Nato as an organisation is not directly involved in the conflict, except to supply Kyiv with non-lethal support, although many member countries send weapons and ammunition individually or in groups, and provide military training.
