The recent by-election in Chester showed the scale of the challenge faced by the Conservatives. Labour took the seat with a swing of almost 14 points, suggesting that polls showing Labour significantly ahead are broadly right and the Conservatives are in a big political hole. With a general election soon on the horizon, the question is can they turn it around?
It’s not all bad news for Rishi Sunak. Recent Ipsos polling shows the public are more likely to think he has what it takes to be a good prime minister (42 per cent) than not (34 per cent) and he leads Keir Starmer on who the public think would make the more capable prime minister by 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Meanwhile, there is little to choose between the two leaders on who the public trust to improve the economy – 43 per cent trust Sunak either ‘a great deal’ or ‘a fair amount’, 39 per cent say the same of Starmer.
Yet, despite this, our data shows Labour 21 points ahead of the Conservatives (50 per cent to 29 per cent) in voter preferences. So, what is going on?
