Rishi Sunak could lose all three byelections this week, a Tory minister has admitted as the party braces itself for a series of damaging defeats on Thursday.
It come as Labour increased its astonishing poll lead to 24 points, with Keir Starmer’s party enjoying a six-point swing in its favour in the latest Deltapoll survey.
Conservative MPs are increasingly gloomy about their chances of avoiding a humiliating triple defeat, with one senior Tory saying most were “resigned” to losing all three contests.
Nuclear minister Andrew Bowie conceded the Tories could lose all three seats. “Of course it’s possible we could lose all three,” he told Times Radio.
He added: “But it’s also possible that we might win all three. I’m an optimist, I’m a Scottish Conservative and Scotland football fan – I have to be an optimist.”
Labour is targeting Uxbridge in a contest triggered by the resignation of Boris Johnson and Selby and Ainsty, vacant after Nigel Adams quit after failing to get a peerage in the former PM’s resignation honours.
In Somerton and Frome, the Liberal Democrats are pulling out all the stops to overturn a 20,000 majority after David Warburton quit following an admission of cocaine use.
Nuclear minister Andrew Bowie conceded the Tories could lose all three seats. “Of course it’s possible we could lose all three,” he told Times Radio.
“But it’s also possible that we might win all three. I’m an optimist, I’m a Scottish Conservative and Scotland football fan – I have to be an optimist.”
Defeats on Thursday would increase pressure on the PM to act decisively to revive Tory hopes ahead of a general election expected next year.
He is expected to carry out a cabinet reshuffle in the autumn – with jostling already under way for the defence secretary job following Ben Wallace’s decision to stand down – but there is speculation that it could be brought forward.
Downing Street has said there are no plans for a shake-up this week. Tory insiders have said Mr Sunak will launch a change in “tone” after the byelections – getting on the front foot about what sort of a country he wants to create.
The Sunday Times reported that the PM will try to change course by engaging in sharper “war on woke” attacks on Labour and offer more “retail” policies beyond his five big pledges when parliament returns in autumn.
But the PM is expected to face calls from across the party for a change in direction if the results go as badly as feared – including calls for tax cuts and a push from the right on immigration.
Mr Sunak fared badly in focus groups organised by the influential Tory donor Lord Ashcroft in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton – described as a “lame duck” PM and “treading water”.
One voter said: “It’s the last-chance saloon. You have let us down in so many ways, and this is my life you’re playing around with.”
Labour up four on 48 per cent, with the Conservatives down two in 24, according to the latest voting intention poll by Deltapoll. Sir Keir’s party increased its lead on economic competence slightly, enjoying a 13-point advantage over the Tories.
Senior Tory Steve Brine said “Long Boris” – the impact of scandals surrounding Mr Johnson – would be responsible for the party’s expected defeat in Uxbridge on Thursday.
But arch Johnson loyalist Sir James Duddridge called Mr Brine’s remarks “ill-advised”, adding: “I think Steve’s wrong on so many levels.”
Sir Keir Starmer with Keir Mather, Labour candidate for the Selby and Ainsty by-election
