Supporters of Rishi Sunak have warned of a “constitutional crisis” if Boris Johnson becomes the second prime minister in succession to be elected by Tory members in the face of opposition from the party’s MPs.
The former PM may find himself faced with a boycott of his government by MPs along the lines of the mass resignation that forced his departure in July, said one minister, who warned that Mr Johnson would not last until 2023, let alone the general election expected in 2024.
The warning came after the Johnson camp sensationally claimed to have secured the promise of the 100 MPs’ signatures he needs to enter the race to succeed Liz Truss, apparently dashing Mr Sunak’s hopes of an uncontested coronation on Monday.
But the claim by Johnson ally Sir James Duddridge was greeted with deep scepticism by Sunak supporters, with one challenging him to “prove it” and another retorting that the supposed hidden army of “Bring Back Boris” MPs “don’t exist”.
“If Boris has 100 in the bag, why is his campaign putting out pics of him begging for votes?” asked Poole MP Sir Robert Syms.
With Sir James saying only that 100 MPs were “prepared to sign nomination papers”, there were suspicions in the Sunak camp that Mr Johnson was laying the ground for a face-saving announcement that, while he had the necessary support, he felt the time was not right for him to return to frontline politics.
Earlier on Saturday, the Johnson campaign appeared to be sputtering to a halt before it was even formally confirmed, despite winning the high-profile endorsement of former home secretary Priti Patel.
While Mr Sunak sped past the 100-nomination threshold late on Friday, Mr Johnson appeared becalmed on the declared support of a little over half that figure, and was hit by former close allies David Frost, Dominic Raab and Steve Barclay – his erstwhile Brexit negotiator, deputy prime minister and chief of staff – all declaring for his rival.
Mr Sunak was also boosted by the backing of trade secretary Kemi Badenoch, who ran a well-regarded bid for the leadership in the summer and is seen as a rising star.
If two contenders clear the nominations hurdle on Monday, MPs will hold an “indicative” vote to give members a clear steer on how much support each candidate enjoys in the Commons – and to give the second-placed candidate the chance to pull out if they trail by an overwhelming margin.
But the Johnson team believe that if the ex-PM can get onto the ballot paper alongside Mr Sunak, even in second place, he can sweep to victory on the back of members’ votes in an online vote set to conclude on Friday.
Apparently spooked by the prospect of Mr Johnson gathering the necessary support to run, a series of Sunak supporters issued statements warning of the dire consequences for the party if activists impose another leader against MPs’ will.
“Being elected the leader of the largest party in parliament, but without being able to form a stable government, would be a new set of circumstances which could lead to constitutional crisis and early general election in chaotic circumstances,” said trade minister Greg Hands.
His warning came as The Independent’s petition calling for an immediate general election passed 360,000 signatures.
Mr Hands claimed that the former PM had offered him the cabinet role of Northern Ireland secretary as he struggled to fill government posts amid an exodus of ministers in July.
“I think he would have offered me almost anything,” said Mr Hands. “I refused.”
And he warned that the situation could be repeated under a second Johnson premiership: “Some of my colleagues think he could win a 2024 general election. But if you can’t form a workable, effective and stable government, you’ll never get to 2023, let alone 2024.”
And former cabinet minister Robert Jenrick warned that the scandals that had forced Mr Johnson out of office “remain unresolved”, while the newly jittery markets would no longer tolerate the former prime minister’s “fiscal cakeism”.
“There may be another moment for Boris, but now is not the time for him to take back the reins,” said Mr Jenrick.
