The resignation of Boris Johnson and two of his close allies, Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams, as MPs means there will be three by-elections as a direct result of Johnson’s decision to evade the findings of the Commons privileges committee.
A fourth by-election may well occur in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. That seat is held by the former SNP politician Margaret Ferrier. She was ordered to be suspended from the House after her conviction for breaking Covid regulations, and a recall petition has been opened in her seat. If 10 per cent of the constituents sign up, then there will be a by-election. Ferrier may contest it, but not as an official SNP candidate.
After the local elections in May, these by-elections will be the first real-world test of voter sentiment, and should provide an interesting insight into the matter of whether tactical voting is likely to play a significant role in the next general election. There’ll also be some interest in how the minor parties, such as the Greens and Reform UK, perform. The four seats are a reasonably good mix, and a psephological feast awaits.
