This week’s three parliamentary by-elections should yield a cornucopia of psephological and political delights – though not for Rishi Sunak, who faces losing what should be three safe Conservative seats. Indeed, the outcome of the contests in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (formerly Boris Johnson’s seat), Somerset and Frome (after the resignation of David Warburton in disgrace) and Selby and Ainsty (incumbent Nigel Adams quit in sympathy with Johnson) could be quite the humiliation for the prime minister.
Constituency opinion polls and the odds offered by the bookmakers all suggest that a political earthquake could be at hand. The only caveat to this is that such is the state of public confidence in the government that a disaster is “priced in”. Thus, the real surprise would be if the Tories actually managed to hang on to even one of their safest seats. As parliament rises for its recess, Sunak and his colleagues will be glad to see the end of this political season.
What is likely to happen?
