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– What goals does official Baku promote by signing the Memorandum on a corridor through Iran?
– Ilham Aliyev creates an atmosphere of interaction in the region based on pragmatism and mutual benefit. For a year and a half, Azerbaijan has been patiently waiting for Armenia’s response to the proposal to unblock communications, but in response, Prime Minister Pashinyan either clung to the name of the Zangezur corridor, raising the emotional mood of the Armenian society, or entered a pose along the routes of the railway and highway, or unilaterally created a commission for the construction of the railway, ignoring the intergovernmental commission …
As a result, Azerbaijan solved a fundamental issue for itself: an overland access to Nakhchivan and further to Turkey without the obligation to open communications for Armenia! This is a very important element, since the opening of communications meant the opening of all communications, but now Baku does not have such obligations, and Iravan will have to ask Baku to open railway lines to Iran and Russia through Azerbaijani territory, as well as the opportunity to use the Baku railway -Tbilisi-Kars.
Along with this, during a visit to Ankara, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey agreed to speed up the construction of a railway from Nakhchivan to Kars, which makes the exit from the Armenian Gyumri to Kars meaningless and secondary for Turkey. This means that there is a possibility that the Armenian-Turkish normalization will also hang, and will completely depend on the flexibility of Armenia in matters with Azerbaijan.
– What losses can Armenia have?
– If earlier, the opening of communications for Armenia was considered as an exchange for the opening of the Zangezur corridor, now the conditions will be different – for sure, a peace treaty with the recognition of territorial integrity!
It should be noted that President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly warned the Armenian side not to delay the opening of the Zangezur corridor.
By its stubbornness, Armenia set Russia up as well: the role of Russia in ensuring the security of the Zangezur corridor and the participation of the Russian SCR in international railway communication in the region was leveled. It turns out that Russia was unable to ensure the implementation of the points of the Trilateral Statement.
The topic of the Lachin corridor is being updated, since the need for the Zangezur corridor has disappeared. This issue will be resolved in the Azerbaijan-Russia format and it is likely that in the very near future.
Thus, Azerbaijan demonstrates that it is not going to wait long. Iravan’s whims and stubbornness cost Armenia dearly. In the current difficult conditions, Baku will rush to make decisions, and Irevan should keep pace. Otherwise, as on the topic of communications and borders, Azerbaijan will take unilateral steps at its own discretion.
– How will the Memorandum affect the Karabakh reality?
– At a meeting with the President of Russia, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev noted priority expectations: the withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces from Karabakh and the opening of communications. On the second topic, Azerbaijan has resolved a fundamental issue. What remains is the withdrawal of troops: voluntary or by force – the choice is up to Armenia. And here Baku will not wait long!
Armenia traditionally builds its foreign policy on playing, on contradictions, while Azerbaijan on the formation of mutually beneficial and equal cooperation. This is the fundamental difference between the two countries.
Turkey, Russia, Iran and China are interested in forming a new transport corridor… Armenia’s participation remains in question.
The leaders of Armenia must accept not only the new realities of the region, but the realities of the present. Satisfying the demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey is the only reasonable step, and there is still an opportunity to jump on the last car of the departing train. Time is running out…
Kamran Mahmudov
