Premier League top four run-in: who has the best fixtures – Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United or West Ham?

There is plenty of intrigue all around the Premier League as the final weeks of a long season approach us, from the title hunt to the battle for survival, but the top four race looks particularly difficult to predict.

Arsenal appeared to be cruising towards their first Champions League campaign in five years but a spate of injuries to a small squad and Monday night’s defeat to Crystal Palace have suddenly opened things up.

Tottenham rose above their old rivals at the weekend and finally appear to be finding some consistency under Antonio Conte, with the January arrivals of Dejan Kulusevski and Rodrigo Bentancur impressing, while Harry Kane and Son Heung-min are in form.

Much could depend on the rearranged north London derby, though that will not be played until the middle of May. Manchester United will hope to have salvaged their season and be back in the hunt by that time, though they currently look a long way off.

West Ham, meanwhile, continue to impress despite fighting on two fronts, with a Europa League campaign to consider. This could be a two, three or four-horse race. The Independent has looked over each side’s run-in to see where it might be run.

Points: 54

Avg. opponent PPG: 1.27

Run-in difficulty: ★★

Tottenham are in the strongest position of all four contenders and not only because they are the team currently in possession of that coveted fourth-place spot. Antonio Conte’s side also have the most favourable run-in.

That is despite their final eight games including the most difficult fixture possible, with a trip to Anfield pencilled in for the middle of next month. Liverpool boast the top flight’s only unbeaten home record this season, winning 12 of their 15 games.

Tottenham then have the rearranged north London derby the following midweek, though the Saturday-Thursday gap should leave enough time to recuperate between the two games and gives them an extra day’s rest on Arsenal.

Outside of those six days, the schedule is kind on paper. The toughest test that Tottenham face according to points-per-game is at home to an out-of-sorts Brighton with nothing to play for, having comfortably beaten Graham Potter’s side in the reverse fixture last month.

Leicester may have something to say about that but have picked up less than one point per-game on their travels this season. This weekend’s visit to Villa Park is by no means a formality either, but nor is it as stern a test as those faced by Spurs’ rivals.

Conte will certainly hope to get over the line if, by the penultimate weekend, Tottenham still occupy the Champions League spots. Spurs close out the campaign against Burnley at home and Norwich away. Both could already be relegated by that point.

Points: 54

Avg. opponent PPG: 1.43

Run-in difficulty: ★★★★

Arsenal have a game in hand on Tottenham, the most fixtures to fulfil of the all the contenders, and therefore the most points to play for too. But the top-four picture was a lot rosier for Mikel Arteta before Monday’s defeat to Crystal Palace.

This weekend’s visit from Brighton and a subsequent trip to St Mary’s will have to be negotiated carefully, especially as Southampton’s home record is strong, but it is not hard to see where Arsenal’s top-four pursuit will be won and lost.

Xural.com